Not Even Close

11-8-2004

Editor, Bill Keller  Conservative Outlook

First, just a tad more gloating. With the final counts in, the final tally for the election, of the popular vote, is Bush 52%, Kerry 47% and Nader 1%. This adds one final win to my projection of Bush taking the popular vote by 5%.  I missed the electoral vote by 14, but what the heck, I will take 4 out of 5.

So, what happened?   Why was it such a boring finale to such a vigorous campaign? Yes, I know, Kerry had a huge lead mid afternoon. Except, it was an illusion, started by the Kerry campaign itself and fed by some obvious misrepresentations in the exit polling.  Simply stated, any number of experts have said it is impossible to get exit polling wrong unless done so deliberately.  A false sense of euphoria swept the Kerry campaign generating a useless confidence for the Democrats and gloom and doom for the Bush campaign.  But, when the actual counts began to be released as the polling places began to close, Bush was never in jeopardy in any state that he was expected to win. And, he made huge gains in traditionally Democratic states even winning my home state of Iowa.  So, why the big loss for the Democrats and why the cakewalk for Bush election night? Unsurprisingly, I have some thoughts on the matter.

I see four primary problems with the Kerry campaign: the candidate, the Democratic campaign strategy, liberal over-reaching and foreign interference. 

The Candidate

Until the meltdown of Howard Dean, John Kerry was never really a player in the Democratic primaries. While it is said that Kerry had been given assurances that he would be the candidate of choice for the Democratic Party, the core of what the Democrats have evolved into passionately disapproved of the war in Iraq, passionately hated President Bush and was intolerant of any other point of view.  Kerry did not initially hold these views, however. Dean’s willingness to travel down that road during the primaries assured his defeat when he reached Iowa, the heart of the heartland. But, until Dean’s train wreck, Kerry was not even a player for the nomination.

Once Kerry had replaced Dean as the obvious choice, the accelerated primary schedule assured him he had the nomination sewed up by mid March, well before the party as a whole could vet the candidates to insure the selected representative was the most electable choice.

Kerry’s primary qualification – 20 years of public service – was demonstrably hollow.  Only 5 minor bills bear his name along with a handful of co-sponsored bills, nothing to really hang his hat on. A review of his public service also failed to turn up a single passion, a single cause that could define him.  The phrase empty suit seems most applicable.

The centerpiece of his nominating convention was his war service.  His status of “hero”. And, the support of his “band of brothers”. He became dependent on a single 35 year old event, his 4 months in Vietnam, to convince the electorate that he was a better choice to guide the US for the next four years. As the devastating Swift Vet ads proved, this was a much too shallow reason for election to the highest office of the land.

And, finally, his nearly pathological unwillingness to take a firm stand on any subject at any time. As Karl Rove said so clearly, his flip-flops were the give that kept on giving.

Campaign Strategy

As a conservative, I really have no way to express the depth of my gratitude for Bill Clinton. Because of him, we have had Terry McAuliffe as head of the DNC for the past 12 years.  During that time, and because of his leadership, the Democrats have lost the House, lost the Senate and lost the Presidency.  The gains while Clinton has had sway over the Democratic Party are more than could ever be hoped for. The just plain nasty campaigns waged during the past 12 years by the Democrats have turned off the American voter and assured that much more conservative values will rule the nation for the next 3 to 4 decades. The nomination and approval of a host of conservative judges is virtually assured by the capture of the Senate.  The age of the Supreme Court assure the retirement of at least three judges ushering in a period of constructionist judges rather than interpretative judges.

The decision to accelerate the primary season provided a prolonged period where the challenger was vulnerable to attack.  His flip-flopping could be illustrated over the months as opposed to a few weeks had the decision been delayed until the Democratic convention.

The decision to depend on 527s such as ACT and MoveOn as well as George Soros to do the dirty work was a tremendous negative to Kerry’s campaign.  I do not believe the American people want a single individual to have such a tremendous influence on our election process. And I do not believe the average voter approved of the nastiness and edginess of the Democratic advertising campaign.

Liberal Over-Reaching

Two profound instances of Liberal over-reaching served to both turn off and hyper-motivate the more conservative portions of the population.

The first was the flurry of gay marriages this spring. Mayors, governors and courts took it upon themselves to create new law in flagrant disrespect of the vast majority of the populace.  While most Americans would support civil unions for gay couples, insuring them the same rights as wedded heterosexual couples, the overwhelming majority do not support the concept of gay marriage.  This was a gift to the Republican Party and most certainly brought out voters that had stayed at home during the last election as well as many independents and right of center Democrats.

The second issue was the visceral opposition to the war in Iraq. While many Americans felt the war was not going well – due in no small respect to the poor reporting by the mainstream media – they were not willing to display such opposition with American troops still engaged in fighting.  Liberals were.  I believe this added to the defections of those who in past years would have voted Democratic.

Foreign Interference

While the Guardian may have felt their “pen pal” efforts with voters in Ohio, urging them to be reasonable and throw Bush out, may have satisfied liberal elements in the UK, they were repulsive to their target audience producing the only shift from Democrat to Republican in the target county. Americans do not like to be dictated to.

Those foreign leaders who actively snubbed President Bush also did not help the Democrats. While Americans may not always approve of their Presidents, the majority do not appreciate foreigners running down our leaders.

Gratefully, it appears that the Democrats have learned little. They are already starting to pick the bones of Kerry’s carcass.  “He wasn’t all that strong of a candidate.” The Newsweek review of the election is devastating in its review of the behind-the-scenes look at the Kerry campaign.

Already word is arising that the Democrats are going to have to learn to speak the language of the religious and moral voters who turned to Bush rather than Kerry. The fact that you must “walk the walk” seems to elude them. They fail to recognize that their party – or at least great segments of the ultra-left – will never be acceptable, regardless of what words are said.

Perhaps the greatest hope for our next election cycle is the ardent whisperings saying that Hillary is the only hope of the Democratic Party. She must run in ’08. All I can say is a little prayer:  Please Lord, let it be Hillary, please.